April Market Update: Rates, Tariffs & Why a No-Cost Refinance May Be Smart Right Now

UFS United Financial Services – Monthly Economic & Mortgage Insights

April 2025  | (949) 922-4639

Top Story: Trade War Paused, But Uncertainty Remains

President Trump has announced a 90-day delay on steep, country-specific tariffs and replaced them with a 10% flat rate on most imports. China remains a major exception, facing 145% tariffs, escalating tensions further.

• China has retaliated with 106% average tariffs on U.S. goods

• EU, Canada, and Mexico trade relations remain unsettled

• Trump may push for more “Buy American” commitments, but it is unknown if he will get all he wants

Kiplinger notes: “We may be entering a trade cold war, where countries are forced to choose between the U.S. and China.”

Kiplinger Economic Forecast

Indicator	2024 Actual	2025 Outlook
GDP Growth	2.8%	1.5%
Inflation Rate	2.9%	4.0%
Unemployment Rate	4.1%	4.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.21%	4.0%
30-Yr Fixed Mortgage	6.72%	~6.4%

The Atlanta Fed is projecting flat or negative GDP for Q1. A slowdown is already here — and the Fed may soon be forced to act.

Trump Vs. Chairman Powell: The Battle Continues.

President Trump has been calling for the resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but it is yet to be seen if the executive branch has the power to remove him. The options Trump is considering are addinig one of his own people to the fed, which is good for headlines, but may not have any actual power. There is also a Supreme Court case which may take about 12 months for a verdict, that could give the government the ability to remove Powell. The final alternative is to push going back to the gold standard with a combination of crypto which could send the Fed into a panic. We will continue to pay attention and give updates as we know more. Also be on the lookout for the May 7th Fed Meeting on whether they will be cutting interest rates.

John Mauldin: “The Uncertainty Recession”

Economist John Mauldin warns that uncertainty alone is enough to trigger a recession. Companies are delaying investments, layoffs are beginning, and the supply chain remains unstable.

• Q1 GDP is estimated at -2.4%

• Tariffs are raising costs on both consumers and businesses

• Domestic manufacturing policies may backfire due to higher input costs

Mauldin’s warning: Without resolution, the U.S. risks a self-inflicted downturn.

Redfin Posts March Real Estate Cancellations: Potential Media Panic

Redfin just came out with thier purchase numbers and are showing about 13.4% cancellation on purchase contracts, which may sound like a lot, but is only .2% higher than March of last year. The numbers also show an increase in seller concessions. Many in the media are beginning to panic about potential home value drops because of the recession, but historically a stock recession does not have a meaningful impact on home values. We are confident that home values will continue to stay strong mainly because of the shortage of housing and a new home construction rate that is unable to keep up with the growing population.

Fed Watch, Lacy Hunt & IMF Currency Insights

Lacy Hunt reports that real M2 money supply and Other Deposit Liabilities are shrinking—a deflationary signal. He believes the Fed should begin cutting rates and expects lower mortgage rates and long-term Treasury yields ahead.

The IMF confirms the U.S. dollar remains dominant, comprising 58% of global reserves. The yuan accounts for just 2.2%.

Federal Reserve Outlook:

• Next meeting: May 7

• Powell acknowledges policy is still restrictive

• Tariffs are viewed as short-term inflationary, not structural

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that rate cuts are "on the table" but favors a wait-and-see approach

AI Investment Faces Tariff Pressure

While Big Tech continues to expand AI infrastructure, tariffs are increasing the cost of servers, chips, and building materials. Many companies are moving toward proven, off-the-shelf AI tools over custom development to reduce overhead.

REAL ID Deadline – May 7

Beginning May 7, travelers must present a REAL ID-compliant license or passport for domestic flights. Look for the gold star on your ID. Long lines are already forming at DMVs—don’t wait.

Refinance Strategy: Why We Recommend a No-Cost Refinance

With inflation rising and market volatility increasing, access to cash and flexibility is critical. That’s why we recommend a no-cost refinance in today’s environment.

A no-cost refinance means the lender pays your title, escrow, and other closing costs—you keep more money in your pocket.

We do not recommend paying points to buy down your interest rate right now, and here’s why:

• Rates are projected to drop later this year

• If you refinance now and pay points, but refinance again when rates fall, you will lose the value of those points

• That’s equity you can’t recover

Our advice: Lock in a better monthly payment now, improve your cash flow, and leave the door open to refinance again if market conditions improve.

Economic Calendar: Week Ahead

Wednesday: Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales

Let’s Discuss Your Refinance Options

Want to run the numbers on a no-cost refinance or see how much equity you could access? We’re here to help with clarity and strategy so you can be in the best position to navigate the potentially recession. We will look over your entire financial situation and show you your options.

Call: (949) 922-4639

Book online: www.uniteFS.com

UFS United Financial Services, Inc.

41593 Winchester Road, Suite 200 Office 229 Temecula, CA 92590